Revisiting the 2023 Real Estate Market Montecito’s Housing DNA: A Market with Good Bones, Strong(ish), and in for the Long Haul

Cheers to you all and Happy New Year, 2024!

Thank you to the Montecito Journal team for providing me this forum, and to the readers who keep me on my toes to bring you the most up-to-date activity and trends month to month in our Montecito, 93108 Real Estate market. 

Throughout 2023 (much like at least the last half of 2022), the Montecito housing market started to cool (in terms of sales volume, anyway). While prices paid for homes continued to rise for the most part and estates over $10M kept up their never-before seen $ales pace. 

A good number of home sales in the 93108 are actually just people moving around from within town, changing addresses, renting out homes, selling their second homes, etc. That said, with over 1,000 homes changing hands since 2019, there are a lot of new faces from other places at Tre Lune for dinner. However, this frantic pace of 300 to 400 homes selling per year has now slowed to half that for the past two years in a row. A great time perhaps now to buy for those who were beat out of multiple offer scenarios in the past and for those who can purchase a home on their own, and are not affected by lending interest rates. 

As I type, we are at the lowest sales volume point in as long as I can remember (over 20 years). I didn’t go further back but might. It would be normal to have around 225+/- homes close escrow in a year in Montecito’s 93108 in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) with another dozen or so or more closing off books. 

This past year, 2023, only 148+/- homes closed escrow in the MLS. Allow for another dozen or two sales not recorded, but you get the picture. A down-in-the-sales numbers kind of year. That said…

2023 also showed us some of the higher prices paid for homes in various price ranges. Homes that seemed they could have been priced at $8 or $9M selling for $10M+, or a listing that seemed it would be $6.9M going for the high $8’s. Other properties that I felt should sell quickly when they were priced around $10 or $11M, stayed on market until lowering their price and finally finding new owners in the high $8’s or $9’s.

Of the 148+/- homes that sold in the MLS in 2023 in Montecito and the 93108 zip code, here is a breakdown of price points. You can see that sales over $10M nearly equal the number of sales under $3M. That is unheard of prior to 2020.

– 27 Under $3M
– 42 $3 to $5M
– 41 $5 to $8M
– 14 $8 to $10M
– 24 $10M and up

Taking a look back at the last quarter in 2023, and pretty much in line with most of, if not all of 2023, we see the following:

– Fewer sales per month than normal year-over-year the past 10 years or more. 
– Fewer multiple offer sales. 
– Fewer over-asking price sales than in the recent few years.
– Properties selling under asking price whether on market a while or just listed.
– Stagnant listings (those with no offers and no price reductions after months on market).
– And lastly, we are seeing more, and sometimes sooner in the process, price reductions.

We would normally see around 50 sales in a 4th quarter in Montecito. This year there were only 35 sales recorded in the MLS in the 4th quarter of 2023. There were of course other closed escrows handled “off market,” however many of those sales do end up in the MLS as well, so this is our best measure of sales and prices and the MLS nationwide is the fountain from which listing information flows to the likes of Realtor.com and Zillow.

If you are looking to buy a home in Montecito’s 93108, here’s to hoping you are flexible on options, style, and price, as there are only a total of 41 homes and condos on the market as of this writing (December 31, 2023). This is near the lowest available inventory we have seen. Included herein are four homes I am surprised are still on the market. They might not be by the time you read this, but for now, these dreams do still exist.

I will update everyone on January sales and listing stats and trends, in late January. 

Until then… Cheers and Happy New Year everyone and again, please keep Montecito friendly.

937 Arcady Road – $5,295,000 

Inspired by the renowned architects that shaped Montecito, exuding charm and character, offering the quintessential Montecito lifestyle, this classic home reminds us of a bygone era. Situated down a private drive, with careful attention to detail, the generous rooms with crown molding, French doors, tall ceilings, and arched doorways all command a sense of space and light. The dining room, formal living, and library open to patios overlooking the pool and grounds. 

Upstairs, the en suite bedrooms each have their own exterior spaces and views. The primary bedroom features a fireplace and sitting area with French doors leading to the veranda, highlighting Montecito Peak and the natural surroundings. Set on over an acre, with mature oaks, a guest cottage, and a pool, all within the Cold Spring School District. 

975 Mariposa Lane – $6,895,000 

Ocean vistas create a powerful state of mind and place in this refined contemporary residence. Nestled on approximately 1± acre, this home, enveloped by majestic oak trees, offers a spacious open floor plan, featuring four bedrooms and three and a half bathrooms. Expansive windows frame ocean and island panoramas. The living room is graced by a vast window showcasing ocean and island views and opens onto a private deck. 

A chef’s kitchen comes complete with a generous center island, quartz countertops, custom cabinetry, and top-of-the-line appliances. The formal dining room bathes in natural light, and the primary suite, with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom, seamlessly connects to a den room with beautiful ocean views. Additional amenities include a pool, built-in BBQ, wet bar, outdoor shower, and beautifully manicured gardens, all within the Montecito Union School District.

900 W. Park Lane – $7,795,000

Welcome to a modern oasis in Montecito’s prestigious Park Lane West, adjacent to the San Ysidro Ranch and within the Montecito Union School District. This five-bedroom residence offers ocean and mountain views and a serene connection with nature. Recently revitalized with extensive renovations, this home exudes contemporary sophistication and meticulous attention to detail. Step inside, and you’ll immediately be greeted by the allure of the expansive walls of glass that frame picturesque vistas, the soaring ceilings that create an open and airy ambiance, and the warmth of natural light that brings the outdoors in. 

The primary suite includes a marble-clad bathroom with a relaxing whirlpool tub, offering a tranquil space to unwind while taking in the mesmerizing mountain views. The chef’s kitchen is equipped with top-of-the-line Wolf and Miele appliances, custom cabinetry, wet bar, and ample pantry storage. Multiple indoor and outdoor gathering areas make entertaining a breeze. Outside, discover three professionally landscaped acres, highlighted by a tranquil plunge pool, perfect for unwinding amidst the captivating beauty of nature. 

777 Romero Canyon Road – Oakhaven Estate – $25,000,000

Designed by renowned architect Robert Spurgeon Jr., this incredible estate rests on a 17± acre ocean view oasis in a close-to-town and beach location, surrounded by other estate properties. This 1927 Spanish Colonial Revival, Hacienda-style home in Montecito’s low-lying foothills comes replete with vast ocean and mountain views and the privacy afforded by a property of this size, rare in such a close-in location. The stage is set as you approach the home up a dramatically long driveway canopied with mature oaks. 

Timeless craftsmanship and unique to the era touches include a warm library with detailed wood paneling and fireplace, a grand living room which opens to both courtyard and deck, a primary bedroom gazing to a southwesterly ocean view and an expansive sunroom hallway where you will find access to several more bedroom suites that truly gives the feeling of a private retreat. 

The spacious dining room directly off the foyer, the cozy breakfast room, and large kitchen and butler’s pantry gives you a feeling of stepping back in time. Adjacent to the kitchen you will find a spacious laundry room and access to a separate two-bedroom wing of the home with its own enclosed patio. The opportunity to acquire this unique estate is now available for the first time in 65 years and consists of three separate APN numbers. All this within the Montecito Union School District.