Montecito Holiday Real Estate Update

By Mark Ashton Hunt | December 31, 2024

Without attempting to be a statistical tower of stats and figures, I have attempted here to give an overall look at Montecito’s Real Estate market – and her nuances – through an analysis of homes sales thus far, January 1 to November 30, 2024. To summarize some thoughts about the Montecito and 93108 Real Estate market over the past 11 months (through end of November), I’d like to share some comments I’ve uttered and/or heard in recent months.

– An odd year, fewer sales, prices are still strong though.

– Many homes are selling for five to 10 percent or more below asking price, even after price reductions.

– There are fewer (if any, month by month) multiple offer and over asking price scenarios.

– Off market sales are more common at the highest end of the market.

– Selling prices are high and yet are not meeting Seller’s even higher expectations.

– Buyers complain of low inventory but also that prices are too high. Supply and demand.

– Are prices going to come down, rates going to come down, inventory to go up, etc…?

– I’m seeing off-market sales, but many of those homes have been on the market recently.

– How did that home sell for so much?

– How did that other home sell for so little?

– Why DIDN’T that home sell and Why DID that other similarly priced home sell?

Our market here in the 93108 seems mostly to be driven by the taste and pocketbook of each buyer. With so few homes on the market in each price range, a buyer may only have a choice between a Spanish fixer, a ranch style remodel or an 80s’ style home in their price range. Again, with so few homes on the market, if a buyer wants Spanish in the $3 to $5M range, there might only be 1 choice, so it makes that decision much easier.

With an annual average to date (in 2024) of about three sales per week in Montecito’s 93108 in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), that’s not a huge pool of sales from which to draw conclusions. A $5M fixer may seem high priced, while a smaller done home or ocean area condo at $5M seems a value, and we see the fixer sell first. Is that because it was in a more desirable location, had more square footage, a pool or view or not, was it near this or that? Probably one – or all – those variables play a part in each purchase.

Many Sellers who are not achieving the bidding wars of the past, are asking if they missed the high point in the market. I would suggest not, and more – that perhaps we are teetering on the high point of the market right now. If that’s true, and you sold your home recently, you likely did well. Seeing where it might go next is anyone’s guess. What we have seen is Sellers asking top dollar, with an assumed 10 to 20%+ year over year asking and sale price increase for the past four years, which may be slowing, and only time will tell, literally. Some months impress, others offer pause to consider.

Our market is definitely slowing in sales volume, with only 135 home sales recorded in the MLS in Montecito’s 93108 between January 1 to November 30, 2024. I project the year will end up with 150+/- sales, or about 12+ sales per month on average, matching my more recent estimates of what is now our normal market these past 12 months.

A handful of all sales in the first 11 months of this year were major fixers or tear downs. Another dozen or so sales were entry level condos and fixers under $3M, but the majority of homes sales are holding court in that prime center market, the $3 to $8M range (which accounted for well over half of all sales so far this year).

Below I’ve offered a brief description of the types of properties that represent a majority of sales in each price range, but there are always unicorns that don’t fit the stereotype.

The 135 Sales in Montecito’s 93108 in the MLS, from the first of January to the last of November, break down as follows.

– 6 sales under $2M – Condos and cottages / fixers

– 10 sales, $2 – $3M – Condos, Fixers and entry level beach area condos and cottages

– 43 sales, $3 – $5M – Nicer beach area condos, fixers and move-in ready homes in all areas

– 35 sales, $5 – $8M – Remodeled/new homes on top streets, estate fixers, luxe beach condos

– 18 sales, $8 – $10M – Mini estates, views, pools, remodels and new homes, small ocean front homes

– 16 sales, $10 – $20M – 5,000 to 10,000 square foot homes, views, privacy, acreage, or ocean front

– 7 sales over $20M – (4 of which were in the $30’s) – These are done estates on acreage (often 3+ acres) or ocean front, amenities galore, views, settings, privacy, etc.

Here are interesting statistics supporting the demand at our top end of the market and our higher entry level to the 93108.

– Nearly 20% of all sales in the 93108 in 2024 were over $10M, (five years ago this price point was just 5% of our sold market).

– There were more sales over $20M than there were sales under $2M, (the entry level went up and the sky’s the limit).

– The under $3M market held the most sales for many years, now it is the $3 to $5M range sporting the most sales, (what was $2.4M is now $4.2M, and on and on; regardless of the small drop in median price, it’s still way up over time).

Based on this year, looking ahead I see more of the same. Lower inventory, disparate sales prices on similar range homes, done homes reaching top dollar, and fixers remaining at elevated prices for those who want to add their own touches. Please let me know if you would like more information about our area’s Real Estate market, or if you are looking for a home or need a price evaluation on your current home. I’m here to help as needed.

Happy Holidays and please, Keep Montecito Friendly.

The following is a wide variety of sales that occurred thus far in 2024 in the Multiple Listing Service in Montecito’s 93108.

Lowest Priced Sale – 1930 N. Jameson Lane Unit A (condo) – $1,270,000

Montecito Union School District, entry-level, two-story condo near the 101 and N. Jameson Lane. Community area, pool, carports, etc.

Top Priced Sale – 875/885 Park Lane (estate) – $36,800,000

Incredible estate on multiple acres with an amazing main home and second home on second parcel within the Montecito Union School District.

As an example of a smaller done home in the foothills – a smaller home with upside potential on a nice lot on a top street near town – I present:

909 Chelham Way (done home on a smaller lot in the Cold Spring School District) – which sold for $3,920,000 and offered three bedrooms and three-and-a-half bathrooms, in just under 2,000 square feet of living space with lovely grounds.

In that same, $4M price range we had a fixer on a prime street in the Montecito Union School District sell:

1180 Mesa Road – $4,050,000

With just two bedrooms and three bathrooms and nearly 1,600 square feet of living space on a third acre lot, this was a big number for an entry level home in the Middle Road area, just blocks to Coast Village Road and the beach.

Sales within the Ennisbrook gated community were strong with casitas’ selling around $5M and a couple of estate homes selling over $15M, such as:

416 Meadowbrook Drive selling off-market for $16,780,500

Incredible estate on 2+ acres, formal, seven bedrooms, 11 bathrooms, etc… impressive and within the Montecito Union School District.

Sale prices are also strong and keep going up and up in the Birnam Wood community where we saw a couple of sales over $10,000,000, including:

2039 Boundary Drive – Sold over asking and quickly for $11,050,000

A completely done home with amazing finishes and volume/space, in a prime and desirable-sized residence of 3,800 square feet (nearly $3,000 per square foot – if you are a price per square foot fan, that’s a big number).

Many homes that had been on the market finally found buyers and cleared the way for new inventory. Notable sales at and around $10M that had been on and off the market over time, or had been on for a while then taken off, included:

615 Hot Springs Road sold for $10,650,000

167 Pomar Lane went for $10,600,000

303 Meadowbrook Drive found a new owner at $9,650,000.

Just a few blocks from each other in prime Upper Village and San Ysidro Ranch area homes, we have a fixer on over an acre at:

690 San Ysidro Road that sold for $8,400,000 after a price reduction or two (a high-priced sale for a fixer but once redone has potential of being a $12.5M+/- property).

While just a few blocks away on the other side of the Ranch we saw a nicely redone pair of homes sell at:

1839 East Mountain Drive that sold for $8.3M as well as its neighbor, 1845 East Mountain Drive that sold for $8.9M.

As for Beach area condos, an ocean front unit at Bonnymede found a new owner. 1385 Plaza Pacifica sold for $6.4M with a private garage and ocean front Primary suite.

Flips and new construction did well in 2024 also. Note sales at:

734 El Rancho Road Sold as a fixer in March for $3,210,000 – followed eight months later with a sale of that same home (in the wake of an incredible remodel) that closed the other week for $5,620,000.

172 Santa Elena Lane – A single level home with a great remodel that included a pool, private grounds, and a lot of bedrooms in a close-to-the-beach and Coast Village Road location within the Montecito Union School District – sold for $8,470,000, an area price record, I believe, for the Montecito Oaks Neighborhood.