Harris or Trump?

In my last two articles I reviewed the policies of candidates Harris and Trump. Here’s my take on the two.

Just so you know, the standards through which I analyze politics and policy are things that have worked best over the years to make us the most prosperous country in the world: individual liberty, freedom in the marketplace, property rights, rule of law, and light government.

Governance Philosophy

Kamala Harris is a Progressive. Her policy instincts are top-down government controls of the economy. The problem with Progressive solutions is that while they are well meaning they either work poorly and inefficiently or often result in the opposite of their intentions. They support price controls but those lead to shortages (gasoline, rentals, food, anything really). High taxes result in less tax revenue and can lead to economic stagnation. High minimum wages (more price controls) ultimately lead to fewer jobs, unemployment, and bankruptcies. Wealth taxes lead to economic stagnation as progress is penalized. 

The Washington Post rated her recent economic policy proposals as being “gimmicky,” unserious, and potentially dangerous.

Donald Trump is… well, I am not sure. His policies are all over the board and I cannot find a consistent philosophy. His policies are mainly ones of expediency, things that he thinks will appeal to voters. He does support lower corporate taxes and reducing federal regulations which are good for the economy. But he also believes in spending big as his Administration’s record shows. He gives lip service to free market ideals but he favors inflation, cheap money, and tariffs. 

Here are some policy differences.

Tariffs

Trump’s proposal to levy a 10%-20% tax on all imports would lead to a recession and unemployment. Because of higher prices, we consumers, being the ones who pay the tariffs, would have less money to spend and would cut back on spending. It would also disrupt the entire world supply chain. 

Harris opposes new tariffs.

Immigration

Trump wants to build a wall and deport immigrants who have claimed asylum in the U.S. He favors deporting immigrants who were brought here as children and opposes the Dream Act. He wants to change the permissive asylum laws.

Harris wants to streamline the asylum process and make it easier for those immigrants to become citizens. She has criticized the “Remain in Mexico” policy. She supports the Dream Act. She wishes to “address” the problems causing people to flee their countries. She opposes a wall.

Inflation

Both candidates say they will reduce inflation. Neither understand the cause of inflation (money “printing” by the Fed). When the Fed doubled the money supply starting in 2020 the result was higher prices, such as prices at the grocery store which rose by 25%. Higher interest rates have calmed inflation and food prices have leveled off, having risen only 1.1% in the past 12 months.

Harris blames higher prices on “price gouging” by grocery chains. If it leads to price controls then, as many economists suggest, we will see food shortages. Trump has not disclosed his anti-inflation policy. 

Taxes

Trump wants to eliminate taxes on Social Security income for low-income taxpayers. Ditto for restaurant tips income. He has said he will reduce taxes on the middle class but has provided no details. He opposes a wealth tax. He vows to keep the 2017 tax cuts: the 21% corporate tax rate and income tax rate reductions.

Harris favors higher corporation taxes and higher taxes for wealthier (successful) taxpayers. She supports reducing taxes for the middle- and lower-class taxpayers. No taxation on tips income. 

Deficits

Neither candidate has been talking about the deficit. Both Trump’s and Harris’s policies would each cost trillions of dollars without offsetting spending cuts or higher taxes. That means even higher deficits. 

Deficits are a major economic problem. The government funds deficit spending by borrowing the money. They are debts of the government and they never get paid off: they just grow. We taxpayers are the ones who ultimately have to pay the interest on these debts. If interest rates are high, government has less to spend on other things like defense, Medicare, Social Security, and welfare benefits. 

Entitlements

Neither candidate will reform entitlements. Their deficit spending will advance the day these programs will be forced to reduce benefits. Presently cutbacks will occur for Medicare in 2031 and for Social Security, 2033.

Abortion

Harris wishes to codify the abortion standards of Roe vs. Wade at the federal level, thus overruling state laws. It is unclear if this is possible or would survive a constitutional challenge.

Trump originally presented himself as a strong abortion opponent during his administration. But he favored a 20-week abortion allowance (Roe was 12 weeks) and allowed abortion for cases of rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is at risk. He is vacillating on abortion policy because he realizes it is a hot-button issue in swing states.

Foreign Policy

Harris as part of the Biden Administration’s policies supports Ukraine and NATO.

Trump says he will end the war quickly through negotiations. He gives no details on Ukraine. In a recent call to Ukraine president Zelenskyy, Trump pledged to “achieve a just peace in Ukraine.” Trump has previously been a weak supporter of Ukraine and NATO and has previously praised Putin as a smart, savvy, strong leader. It is unclear how he will achieve this goal.

Trump or Harris 

Harris is actually quite clear about her economic policies, and I believe they would result in an expansion of government control and would lead to economic stagnation.

Normally I would support a candidate who would favor free market-leaning policies. Trump has not convinced me that he supports those policies. I believe he would continue his support for lower corporate taxes and lower individual tax which are due to expire in 2025. He has said he will continue reducing federal regulations.

However Trump’s tariff policy would be a disaster for the economy and would lead to a recession. He is ignorant of the consequences of tariffs and believes it will win him votes. 

He is also a big spender. Both candidates policies would cost trillions and would add to the deficit. He and Harris are about equal on big spending.

I disagree with Trump’s policies on Ukraine and NATO. History reminds us that stability in Europe is best for the entire world. History also suggests that Putin is a major threat to stability. His messianic ideas about a Greater Russia make the world a more dangerous place. Sometimes one should actually believe what dictators say.

I think the Biden Administration has done a better job on foreign policy than did Trump. They support Ukraine and NATO.

One would think that we could come up with better candidates from both parties, but we voters have failed to do that. Harris is a Progressive left-winger who will follow a statist script. Trump is a self-interested megalomaniac whose policies are a confusing mixed bag. Neither is good for America. 

At this point I can’t support either candidate. It’s the Devil’s choice.