Montecito Market Update

Montecito continues to enjoy a healthy real estate market, with sales up 22% over last year; 131 homes and condos have sold so far this year, compared to 107 by the end of August in 2018. By this time in 2017, prior to the Thomas Fire and debris flow, we were at 149 sales. 

Looking at sales prices, median sales price is up 4%: $2,855,475, compared to $2,737,500 in 2018. Average sales price is $3,634,621, which is down slightly from $3,721,211 in 2018, year-to-date. Month over month, the median sales price was up significantly in August: $4.2M, which is the highest monthly median sales price since May 2015. While there were only 12 sales in August, they were higher priced sales, ranging in price from $1.5M-$6.9M. 

We’ve seen the sale of eight homes over $10M this year so far, which is twice as many as we saw last year, and four times as many in 2017. Notable sales include 2955 East Valley Road, an impressive contemporary home on over eight acres that sold for $27M after being on the market for 549 days. The sale was the highest sale we’ve seen since 2016, when Seamair Farm, 23 acres in the Hedgerow, sold for $28,850,000 (Oprah bought that one). Another notable sale this year was on Hot Springs Road, a 1920s George Washington Smith estate that sold in March for $15,500,000. 

This year has brought the sale of several homes affected by the debris flow; some which were sold pre-restoration and some that were remodeled and restored, and then put on the market. Sales of homes damaged in the debris flow and sold as-is include a property on Olive Mill Road (sold for $1,545,000), a home on Rockbridge in Riven Rock ($1,950,000), a large home in the Hedgerow (sold for $2M), a 3-acre property in Glen Oaks (sold for $2.1M), and a home on a private lane off Olive Mill (sold for $2,375,000). There are currently two homes in Montecito Oaks in escrow after being restored following the mudflow; both went into escrow within one week of being listed. 

Montecito Picks at Every Price 

There are currently 190 homes, condos, and PUDs for sale in the Cold Spring and Montecito Union School districts, ranging in price from a studio at Bonnymede for $799,900 to Rancho San Carlos, a 237-acre estate on the east end of Montecito that’s been on the market for 4.5 years and is listed for $75,000,000. There are several buys in every price point; here are a few of my favorites. 

A completely remodeled home on Sycamore Canyon Road is listed for $1,595,000. The 2-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is outfitted with hand-carved white oak doors, custom marble vanities, wide plank hardwood floors, solid birch walk in closets, and quartzite kitchen counters, in a warm, aesthetically pleasing palette. It’s located in Cold Spring School district and just a quick drive to downtown Santa Barbara. 

A modernized classic Spanish-style home is back on the market in the Hedgerow on San Leandro Lane. Built in the 1920s, the estate has been updated with whimsical accents while retaining the historic architecture. Sitting on 1.3 acres, the home has four bedrooms and five bathrooms, with a pool located in a picturesque courtyard. List price is $4,995,000. 

Set above Coast Village Road and boasting expansive ocean views, 136 Middle Road is currently listed for $7,250,000. The 1930s remodeled Villa is down a secluded private lane with a private motor court, and offers four bedrooms and seven bathrooms with a guest apartment and plenty of extra space. A sprawling terrace frames the pool where one can enjoy ocean and island views. 

A six-acre compound behind the gates of Ennisbrook is on the market for $12,670,000. The unique property offers multiple structures including the Adobe House, which has a large master suite, chef’s kitchen, breakfast room, subterranean wine cellar, and game room. Nearby is the Monterey House, a separate residence with a living room, kitchen, three bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and an outdoor entertainment terrace with a fireplace, dining areas and an adjacent formal library and exercise studio. There’s also a large stable with four stalls, and a tack room that overlooks a fenced dressage arena, and paddocks.

South County Statistics 

The Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service released numbers earlier this week giving perspective of how today’s market compares to past years. At the end of August, our median sales price year-to-date for single-family homes, estates, and PUDs from Goleta to Carpinteria, was $1,291,500, which is up slightly from last year ($1,250,000). This is the highest January-August median sales price we’ve ever seen. Just looking at August, the median sales price was $1,300,000, which is down slightly from July’s median sales price of $1,322,495. August sales were a touch lower than last year; 107 compared to 112 sold in August 2018.

The number of sold properties in the Santa Barbara South Coast is up 4.7% from last year: 765 compared to 731 in 2018, year-to-date. Average sold price is also up 13.4% from last year. 

There are currently about 580 active listings from Goleta to Carpinteria, including homes, condos, and PUDs. Another 89 are currently pending. This translates to a 5.2-month supply of homes if no other homes are to come on the market. A six-month supply is considered a balanced market; fewer than six months is considered a sellers’ market and over six months is considered a buyers’ market. The number of new properties that have come on the market so far this year is down 1.9%, while the number of properties that have gone into escrow is up 4.2%; 823 properties have gone into escrow this year so far, compared to 790 by the end of August 2018. This tells me that the lack of new listings is keeping prices high; there continues to be a high demand for good quality, well priced inventory. 

The sweet spot in our market continues to be $1M to $1.4M; we saw the sale of 28 homes in this bracket, which is over 25% of the total sales. Other popular price points are $800K to $1M, and $2M-$2.25M. 

Condos Sales Slump 

In Montecito, no condos sold in August. The previous months were slow as well: there were four sales in both June and July. We currently have 28 condos in Montecito listed in the MLS, with at least five more that are for sale quietly. Of the 28 listed, 11 have had price reductions, and the average number of days on market is 174 days. 

At the end of August, the number of South County condo sales year-to-date was down 6.2% over last year, while the median price is nearly the same: right around $650K. Active listings, new listings, and properties going under contract are also down. August was easily the slowest month for condos this summer: only 29 sold compared to 45 in July and 39 in June. Last August (2018), we saw the sale of 46 condos. 

Days on Market Increasing

An interesting statistic to check in with the temperature of the market is the increase of what we call “cumulative days on market,” or CDOM. This is a number that takes into account the number of days the home has been listed, regardless if the listing was withdrawn or canceled and relisted with a different agent. In August, the average CDOM was 75, which means that sold properties were on the market an average of 75 days before selling. In July that number was 61, and in June it was 52. This tells me that homes are sitting longer than they should be, and correlates to a greater gap in original list price and final sales price. 

What’s Next for Our Market 

As we head into fall, I predict that prices will continue to increase, but not at the rate we’ve seen in the past. In Montecito I believe we will continue to see the listing of remodeled debris flow homes, and buyers will be eagerly awaiting the new iteration of the debris flow risk map which is expected by the end of October.

Buyers should be aware that many sellers whose homes have been on the market longer than average may be motivated to sell at a lower price, but may not want to “show their cards” by lowering their list price. Active buyers who may have been pre-qualified earlier this summer may want to have their mortgage lender rerun the numbers with the very latest interest rates, which could save them hundreds of dollars per month on their mortgage. 

My advice to sellers is the same as it always is: have your Realtor monitor the market carefully to help inform the list price of your home. Thanks in part to the Internet, buyers are savvier than ever, and if a home is grossly overpriced it will very likely sit on the market for months, which will ultimately have a devaluing effect.